Gold Holds Firm as Markets Brace for a Choppy 2026, While Silver Charges Toward AUD 100
It’s been one of those weeks where global markets are trying their best to look calm on the surface, while everyone knows there’s a lot moving underneath. Australia, the US, and the broader metals market all delivered signals — some clear, some questionable — and bullion traders are watching them closely.
Let’s start at home. The RBA kept interest rates on hold again, which surprised absolutely no one, but the mood around the decision felt different. Instead of the usual cautious optimism, the bank leaned harder into the warning language. Inflation hasn’t faded as quickly as policymakers were hoping, and the RBA all but admitted that rate increases next year remain firmly on the table. Households are already stretched, business lending is tightening, and yet inflation refuses to settle — a combination that sets the stage for a pretty tense first half of 2026.
Over in the US, the labour market served up a headline that looks great until you read it twice. Job openings surged. Normally that’s a positive sign, but this time it sparked more suspicion than excitement. Job seekers and analysts have been increasingly vocal about the mismatch between advertised roles and real opportunities. Many listings appear stale, duplicated, or simply not actual vacancies. Whether companies are boosting perceived demand or whether the data collection methods are just flawed, the gap between the numbers and lived experience is widening. For the Federal Reserve, this makes decision-making even trickier: a labour market that looks strong but feels weak often leads to policy mistakes.
Another eyebrow-raising moment came from the US federal budget outlook. Washington is talking confidently about reducing its monthly deficit from a hefty 367 billion dollars down to 137 billion. Economists immediately raised the red flag. For those numbers to make sense, tax revenue has to climb sharply, spending needs to be magically restrained, and the broader economy has to cooperate… and right now, none of those assumptions look particularly safe. Governments can be optimistic — especially when heading into an election year — but markets have a long memory for budget forecasts that miss the mark.
In contrast to the uncertainty swirling around global economics, gold continues to do what gold does best: hold steady while everything else wobbles. The metal remains comfortably above its moving averages, and its RSI is sitting in that sweet spot where momentum is positive without being overheated. Technically, the macro trend still leans upward. The only short-term pressure point is the one-day moving average, which has started to squeeze price action a little. If that pressure increases, we could see a mild pullback — more of a tidy-up than a trend reversal. For long-term holders, nothing about the chart suggests panic.
Silver, however, is the real talking point right now. It’s been on an absolute tear, with local pricing edging closer and closer to the AUD 100 mark. Not long ago, that figure would have sounded like a moonshot. Now, traders are openly wondering whether it could happen before year’s end if momentum continues. Silver has outperformed gold on a percentage basis for several months, driven by both investment demand and industrial expectations for 2026. For stackers, it’s been one of the most exciting runs in years.
On The Gold Price Club, we’re continuing to track both buy and sell prices across Australia’s major dealers to make sure subscribers can clearly see who is paying the strongest premiums — especially important when metals move this quickly. Fast markets often mean big gaps between dealers, and having a comparison tool has never been more valuable.
